Today we are seeing a crisis, economic slow-down, recession. It may be called numerous ways. And it may have different scenarios. International Monetary Fund considers the world economy to be in the deepest recession ever since the Second World War.
The loan markets are shocked. There is almost no more trade for them. Companies turnover is falling quicker than ever before. Daily global employers cut costs for HR purposes and reduce thousands employees all over the world. Caterpillar is going to kick out 20 thousand people, SAP – 3 thousand people, Phillips – 6 thousand, Commerz/Dresdner Bank is dismissing ca 9 thousand people.
Oil price is falling. Car makers that the most important for Germany economy are dumping. IMF is forecasting high risks of global prices fall, i.e., about deflation. As the governments are eager to avoid it, they are making cash investments to the funds and are increasing their country debt. Only USA have 51 trillion USD debt, excluding 8,5 trillions of new guarantees of the finance support. Only this year the country is going to generate government loans for about 2,5 trillions.
The first trouble one may expect is prices growth in countries with developed economic market. Island has already faced this problem. Inflation is on its top there.
No one wants to invest any more. Shareholders’ funds of 30 trillion have disappeared. Milliards are placed in term deposits.
The pessimistic scenario
It’s not obvious to be a person with great imagination in order to foresee years of dark prospective for the economy. Possibility of triple crisis is being expected in some regions. Wide range of mass-media are optimistic that it’s not going to happen, yet, it’s the prospective.
According to this theory, the world economy is going to downsize in the coming 5 years. German economy will downsize in 15%. Real economy will fall below the zero index. In Germany 3,5 millions jobless will be searching for new opportunities.
